Sat Mar 23, 2024 11:33 pm by globalturbo
John Ward – Bernanke’s ‘New-Style’ QE – Why It
Won’t Produce An Alternative Future : Without Massive Debt Forgiveness
And A New Capitalist Model, There Is No Alternative Future – 16
September 2012
Posted on September 16, 2012 by lucas2012infos | Leave a comment
(Lucas : Comment on this article titel: There are for sure other
models than capitalist models to create a new alternative future that
need not be communist or socialist labeled. The already in place and
working for some time alternative exchange and money systems all over
the world are example to that. Keywords: sharing, value backed or
accepted as such in a chosen form, in service of the community and for
all its needs, commerce without debt and interest. It seems being stuck
in the old paradigm system, makes thinking out of the box/ matrix
needed. Commerce does not equal whatever people like to label on
things. If the premiss is sharing all wealth and abundance in harmony
and peace a new system will be different from all that have been around
for centuries. Maybe if people see things different, have a new mindset,
awaken, there is no need for money and systems at all.)
The US public debt climbed to $14.58 trillion at the end of
August 2012. This made it slightly bigger than the $14.53 trillion size
of America’s GDP in 2010.
I typed that fact in bold because I’m beginning to wonder what it
takes to make global citizens wake up to the fact of America’s depth of
indebtedness. The planet’s pivotal economy will, from here on in, be
required to make an extra 10cents on the Dollar export profit each year –
at the rate of the total deficit in turnover – to start paying off any
of the debt. (And that assumes interest rates and import tariffs stay
exactly as they are).
Here’s another fab factoid:
The deficit – that’s the annually accruing debt – is now
perilously close to being 10% of GDP. This means that, even if earnings
stay as they are, the USA will be treading water before it earns a
single cent by the end of 2023.
The only way in which that extrapolation is simplistic involves the
assumption that things will remain as now. That is highly unlikely:
America faces the same global depression as the rest of us, and is
losing share of global trade every year. The United States is piling up
foreign debt and losing export capacity, and the growing trade deficit
with China has been a prime contributor to the crisis
in U.S. manufacturing employment. Between 2001 and 2011, the trade
deficit with China eliminated or displaced more than 2.7 million U.S.
jobs, over 2.1 million of which (76.9%) were in manufacturing.
A total of 453,100 jobs were lost or displaced from 2008 to 2010 alone — even though imports from China and the rest of world collapsed in 2009 during the height of the global financial crisis.
Neither QE1 or QE2 changed that situation to the slightest degree.
But Ben Bernanke declared last Thursday that he’d do “whatever it takes”
to lower stubbornly high unemployment with a third bout of QE. I’m told
that this bout will be different and better. But if so, why wasn’t it tried at the 1 & 2 stages? And will it be different? I doubt it: and Reuters agrees with me (my emphasis):
‘By giving an open-ended commitment to pour money into the
market for mortgage-backed securities, the Fed will likely keep on
supporting stocks and other asset classes by keeping returns low on MBS.
Investors in search of yield will have more reason to buy equities and
to lend money to companies. Peter Hooper, an economist at Deutsche Bank
in New York, thinks the Fed’s bond buying program will add at least a
half a percentage point to gross domestic product over the next year, largely by boosting stock prices and making people feel more wealthy. “The main transmission mechanism is through the stock market,” Hooper said.’
Sounds like the same-old-same-old to me: the stock rises will
increase bonuses and dividends for the rich, piling yet more money into
the already obscenely wealthy 3%. And the money will be lent to large
multinationals, to fund mergers and kill/move offshore yet more US jobs.
Ratings agency Egan-Jones has this to say:
‘The Fed’s new round of quantitative easing, or QE3, will hurt
the U.S. economy. The Fed’s plan of buying $40 billion in
mortgage-backed securities a month and keeping interest rates near zero
does little to raise GDP, reduces the value of the dollar, and raises
the price of commodities. From 2006 to present, the US’s debt to GDP
rose from 66% to 104% and will probably rise to 110% a year from today
under current circumstances; the annual budget deficit is 8%. In
comparison, Spain has a debt to GDP of 68.5% and an annual budget
deficit of 8.5%.’
At Jackson Hole in 2011, Bernanke told his audience that the Fed “has
lots of alternative strategies still to be tried”. Is this latest
repeat seen as an alternative, or is Benny waiting until he’s more
double-dog certain that Armageddon is the only alternative to some
creativity being applied to the problem?
Look across the Western world: in the UK, over £400bn has been thrown
at QE, to no effect. The expenditure has dwarfed any savings made by
Chancellor George Osborne, and the economy continues to flatline, with
the only job creation occurring thanks to lower wages and shorter
hours. The debts of all EU States (but especially the southern members)
are astronomical: Greece has no chance at all of repaying hers, and both
Spain and Italy are heading down the same road. If Germany commits to
being the last resort saviour of the eurozone, its fiscal probity will
implode. But Mario Draghi is now set to embark upon ‘unlimited’ bond
buying…aka, QE.
Bernanke, Osborne and Draghi are pissing against a Tsunami. The
Establishments have run out of ideas, and people around the world know
it: that’s why the megamoney has started investing bigtime in property
and gold. Because fiat currencies are being eroded by treasury thinkers
who believe (along with the risk-taking banker/bondholder axis) that
somehow, over time, the populace can be used to monetise their
fantasies.
None of this matters any more. The calculations of the self-styled
clever are so hopelessly out, so ridiculously poorly thought through,
the elastic will snap and create a hyperinflated global slump long, long
before any of the crazy obligations they took on have been soaked up by
the mugs. Only then will somebody with courage wake up to the only
solution: wind the debt/surplus clock back to zero, or face a future in
which nobody can afford to export, because nobody can afford to buy.
At that moment – who knows? – it might occur to the mercantile globalism fanatics that we need a real alternative.
www.hat4uk.wordpress.com link to original article
Thanks to: http://lucas2012infos.wordpress.com
Won’t Produce An Alternative Future : Without Massive Debt Forgiveness
And A New Capitalist Model, There Is No Alternative Future – 16
September 2012
Posted on September 16, 2012 by lucas2012infos | Leave a comment
(Lucas : Comment on this article titel: There are for sure other
models than capitalist models to create a new alternative future that
need not be communist or socialist labeled. The already in place and
working for some time alternative exchange and money systems all over
the world are example to that. Keywords: sharing, value backed or
accepted as such in a chosen form, in service of the community and for
all its needs, commerce without debt and interest. It seems being stuck
in the old paradigm system, makes thinking out of the box/ matrix
needed. Commerce does not equal whatever people like to label on
things. If the premiss is sharing all wealth and abundance in harmony
and peace a new system will be different from all that have been around
for centuries. Maybe if people see things different, have a new mindset,
awaken, there is no need for money and systems at all.)
The US public debt climbed to $14.58 trillion at the end of
August 2012. This made it slightly bigger than the $14.53 trillion size
of America’s GDP in 2010.
I typed that fact in bold because I’m beginning to wonder what it
takes to make global citizens wake up to the fact of America’s depth of
indebtedness. The planet’s pivotal economy will, from here on in, be
required to make an extra 10cents on the Dollar export profit each year –
at the rate of the total deficit in turnover – to start paying off any
of the debt. (And that assumes interest rates and import tariffs stay
exactly as they are).
Here’s another fab factoid:
The deficit – that’s the annually accruing debt – is now
perilously close to being 10% of GDP. This means that, even if earnings
stay as they are, the USA will be treading water before it earns a
single cent by the end of 2023.
The only way in which that extrapolation is simplistic involves the
assumption that things will remain as now. That is highly unlikely:
America faces the same global depression as the rest of us, and is
losing share of global trade every year. The United States is piling up
foreign debt and losing export capacity, and the growing trade deficit
with China has been a prime contributor to the crisis
in U.S. manufacturing employment. Between 2001 and 2011, the trade
deficit with China eliminated or displaced more than 2.7 million U.S.
jobs, over 2.1 million of which (76.9%) were in manufacturing.
A total of 453,100 jobs were lost or displaced from 2008 to 2010 alone — even though imports from China and the rest of world collapsed in 2009 during the height of the global financial crisis.
Neither QE1 or QE2 changed that situation to the slightest degree.
But Ben Bernanke declared last Thursday that he’d do “whatever it takes”
to lower stubbornly high unemployment with a third bout of QE. I’m told
that this bout will be different and better. But if so, why wasn’t it tried at the 1 & 2 stages? And will it be different? I doubt it: and Reuters agrees with me (my emphasis):
‘By giving an open-ended commitment to pour money into the
market for mortgage-backed securities, the Fed will likely keep on
supporting stocks and other asset classes by keeping returns low on MBS.
Investors in search of yield will have more reason to buy equities and
to lend money to companies. Peter Hooper, an economist at Deutsche Bank
in New York, thinks the Fed’s bond buying program will add at least a
half a percentage point to gross domestic product over the next year, largely by boosting stock prices and making people feel more wealthy. “The main transmission mechanism is through the stock market,” Hooper said.’
Sounds like the same-old-same-old to me: the stock rises will
increase bonuses and dividends for the rich, piling yet more money into
the already obscenely wealthy 3%. And the money will be lent to large
multinationals, to fund mergers and kill/move offshore yet more US jobs.
Ratings agency Egan-Jones has this to say:
‘The Fed’s new round of quantitative easing, or QE3, will hurt
the U.S. economy. The Fed’s plan of buying $40 billion in
mortgage-backed securities a month and keeping interest rates near zero
does little to raise GDP, reduces the value of the dollar, and raises
the price of commodities. From 2006 to present, the US’s debt to GDP
rose from 66% to 104% and will probably rise to 110% a year from today
under current circumstances; the annual budget deficit is 8%. In
comparison, Spain has a debt to GDP of 68.5% and an annual budget
deficit of 8.5%.’
At Jackson Hole in 2011, Bernanke told his audience that the Fed “has
lots of alternative strategies still to be tried”. Is this latest
repeat seen as an alternative, or is Benny waiting until he’s more
double-dog certain that Armageddon is the only alternative to some
creativity being applied to the problem?
Look across the Western world: in the UK, over £400bn has been thrown
at QE, to no effect. The expenditure has dwarfed any savings made by
Chancellor George Osborne, and the economy continues to flatline, with
the only job creation occurring thanks to lower wages and shorter
hours. The debts of all EU States (but especially the southern members)
are astronomical: Greece has no chance at all of repaying hers, and both
Spain and Italy are heading down the same road. If Germany commits to
being the last resort saviour of the eurozone, its fiscal probity will
implode. But Mario Draghi is now set to embark upon ‘unlimited’ bond
buying…aka, QE.
Bernanke, Osborne and Draghi are pissing against a Tsunami. The
Establishments have run out of ideas, and people around the world know
it: that’s why the megamoney has started investing bigtime in property
and gold. Because fiat currencies are being eroded by treasury thinkers
who believe (along with the risk-taking banker/bondholder axis) that
somehow, over time, the populace can be used to monetise their
fantasies.
None of this matters any more. The calculations of the self-styled
clever are so hopelessly out, so ridiculously poorly thought through,
the elastic will snap and create a hyperinflated global slump long, long
before any of the crazy obligations they took on have been soaked up by
the mugs. Only then will somebody with courage wake up to the only
solution: wind the debt/surplus clock back to zero, or face a future in
which nobody can afford to export, because nobody can afford to buy.
At that moment – who knows? – it might occur to the mercantile globalism fanatics that we need a real alternative.
www.hat4uk.wordpress.com link to original article
Thanks to: http://lucas2012infos.wordpress.com
